By David N. Bass
Carolina Journal
- Harris’ advantage among female likely voters in North Carolina stands at 47% to 43%, while Trump’s advantage among men is more pronounced at 50% to 42%, according to a new Carolina Journal poll of likely voters.
- In 2020, 48% of men voted for Joe Biden. In 2016, 41% pulled the lever for Hillary Clinton. In 2012, Barack Obama won 45% support among men.
A large share of focus during the 2024 presidential election, for both campaigns, has been on winning the female vote. But a sleeper issue this year that’s flying under the radar could have a potentially decisive impact on the way the election goes, including right here in North Carolina—the way men will end up voting.
Recent national polling has shown a large and growing gender gap in support levels between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. The difference is especially pronounced among Gen Z, a cohort of roughly 72 million individuals now in their late teens and 20s. Even among black male voters, Harris is experiencing slippage.
As the Hill recently reported, “Former President Trump’s problems with female voters are well known. New polls show that Harris has just as big of a problem with male voters in some states,” pointing to battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina.
The Harris campaign has taken note, dropping $10 million on a “White Dudes for Harris” ad buy that specifically targets men.
Meanwhile, Trump has doubled down on efforts to attract male voters. Trump has appeared on podcasts and livestreams with male influencers like Adin Ross and Logan Paul, made appearances at events like UFC fights and Formula One races, and embraced symbols like Bitcoin that are popular among young men.
“The polling gender gap has been a feature of American politics for decades, with Democrats generally doing better with women and Republicans performing better with men,” said Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. “The increased gap this year is likely a reflection of a woman being the Democratic nominee and abortion becoming a top-tier issue for some women, especially single women. I do not expect that gap to close any time soon.”
What’s The Situation In NC?
Harris’ advantage among female likely voters in North Carolina stands at 47% to 43%, while Trump’s advantage among men is more pronounced at 50% to 42%, according to a new Carolina Journal poll of likely voters in the Tar Heel State.
Trump’s strength among men has increased since the May CJ poll put his support level at 47%, while Harris’ entrance into the race clearly put more women into the Democrat’s column. In May, just 37% of female voters picked Biden compared to 40% of females choosing Trump.
The gender divide is evident in other polling as well. In the latest New York Times/Siena poll of NC voters, Harris secured 39% support among men and 52% among women, while Trump commanded 56% support among men and 44% among women.
The gender gap in NC tracks with national polling as well. In the national NYT/Siena poll,, 40% of men supported Harris compared to 54% of women, while 54% of men supported Trump compared to 42% of women.
If these numbers hold, Harris would be securing a historically low percentage of support among men. In 2020, for example, 48% of men voted for Joe Biden. In 2016, 41% pulled the lever for Hillary Clinton. In 2012, Barack Obama won 45% support among men.
“A persistent part of the gender gap is the marriage gap. Married women tend to support Republicans, although not quite as much as married men do. Single men (including divorced, widowed, or never married) are a bit of a mixed bag, but single women tend to heavily favor Democrats,” Jackson added.
Gen Z Divide
Voters ages 18 to 34—Gen Z voters and younger Millennials—went for Harris 46% to 41% in August, but the gap widened by September with 50% support for Harris and 38% support for Trump, according to the September CJ poll.
A report last year from the American Enterprise Institute found that 46% of Gen Z women identify as liberal compared to 28% of men, while 36% of men identify as conservative compared to 26% of women.
Dr. David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh, noted the significant gender divide within Gen Z.
“In the most recent Meredith College Poll, a majority of Gen Z males had a favorable view of former President Donald Trump, while almost 70% of Gen Z females had an unfavorable view of the former president,” McLennan said. “Even on issues like abortion, there is a significant gap with a large majority of Gen Z women disapproving of the new abortion law in NC, while almost half of the Gen Z males approve of it.”
David Bass is a senior contributor to the Carolina Journal.
Polls results are useless. Polls get the answers the pollsters want because the questions bare worded to to get those answers. Polls are like ********, everyone has one.