All Eyes On NC’s 2026 US Senate Race

By David Larson

The vast majority of Americans were very happy for election season to be over, putting all the divisiveness aside to come together to celebrate the holidays with their family and friends. But some fanatical people, like you and me, are already looking towards the next election cycle. And for those in North Carolina, the US Senate race will be the main event.

Currently, this seat is held by Republican former NC House Speaker Thom Tillis. But he is likely to see a tough fight in both the primary and general elections.

To survive the primary, Tillis may have to survive a challenger, or challengers, from the right. While Tillis’ center-right, more-independent style arguably matches the overall profile of the state, it has caused him significant trouble with the GOP base.

For example, the two-term senator was censured by the state Republican Party last year for his support of a bill codifying same-sex marriage. Also, based on his voting record, Heritage Action gives him a 59% conservative rating, just under their 62% average score for Senate Republicans.

On social media, the Republican grassroots, who tend to be very active in primaries, frequently call him a “RINO” (meaning a Republican in name only) and blame him for losses by figures like Madison Cawthorn and Mark Robinson, whom they believe Tillis undermined behind the scenes.

A poll by Victory Insights of 800 likely voters in late November found that in a potential primary matchup between Lara Trump and Tillis, Lara Trump garnered 65% of the vote to Tillis’ 11%.

Lara Trump has appeared open to the possibility of running for the seat when asked. Some in the grassroots have also floated Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson as a possible primary opponent for Tillis.

But Andy Jackson of the John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity warned that replacing a moderate incumbent with a grassroots favorite can often mean losing the seat to Democrats in a purple state like North Carolina.

“Some party activists are eager for someone to challenge Tillis the same way Michele Morrow challenged the Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction Catherine Truitt,” said Jackson. “While Tillis appears vulnerable, there is a danger that they could end up with a similar result, winning the primary challenge only to lose to the Democratic nominee in the general election.”

If Tillis is to survive the primary, as some Republicans turn their back on him, he may need look towards the large pool of unaffiliated voters, who are nearing 40% of the North Carolina electorate and may appreciate independence over purity.

Tillis’ appearance at a “No Labels” event in December may signal he intends to do exactly that. The group was formed for officials from any party who are pragmatic problem solvers, often centrists. Independent voters don’t always fall into the centrist category, as they frequently are reliable voters on one side of the aisle, but many are ticket splitters too. Unaffiliated voters are allowed to vote in party primaries but do not come out in as large numbers for primaries as do those registered with one of the two main parties.

Getting through the party primary, especially against someone with the last name Trump, would be a challenge. But the next challenge, of winning the general election, might prove to be an even bigger one if popular former Gov. Roy Cooper decides to throw his hat in the ring.

Over the past few weeks, Cooper has made many comments that suggest he is seriously considering taking on this new challenge, saying in his farewell address, “I’m not done.”

When the New York Times asked him if that meant he was running for US Senate, he indicated it was likely, saying, “So everything is on the table for me. I’m going to take several months after I leave office, spend some time with my family and think about how I can best make a difference, and then I’ll make that decision… I’m really not inclined any particular way at this point… It’s hard for me to believe that I won’t want to do something to continue adding to the woodpile, and I look forward to that.”

Cooper is undefeated in statewide elections, winning six straight races for attorney general and governor. With Cooper on the ticket, Democrats would have a very good shot at taking the seat. Cooper would be 69 at the time of the election, but that’s hardly old in the US Senate, where the majority are in their 60s or above.

Whether it’s against Tillis or another Republican, and whether they are able to convince Cooper to run or not, Democrats are going to pour record amounts of cash into the North Carolina Senate race. In the 2026 US Senate map (below), Democrats only have one possible pickup — in Maine — of a GOP senator running for reelection in a state won by Kamala Harris. Sen. Susan Collins may indeed by vulnerable there, with a 43% approval and 51% disapproval according to Morning Consult.

But Democrats are down 53 to 45 in the US Senate, with two additional independent senators who caucus with them. Finally knocking off Collins of Maine will not be near enough to regain the chamber. In addition, they have to play defense in Michigan and Georgia, states that voted for Trump and have Democrat senators running for reelection. Light blue states like Minnesota and New Hampshire may even need resources to protect Democrat incumbents.

So Democrats are on the lookout for any currently red seats that can be wrestled away in a red state — and North Carolina is their No. 1 target, since Democrats frequently win statewide races here. Their next best options are places like Texas and Iowa, which would have much longer odds.

It may end up being a stop-the-bleeding election for Democrats, where they try to protect the seats in Michigan and Georgia, go for pickups in Maine and North Carolina, and largely abandon the rest of the map, unless polling shows an unexpected opportunity or vulnerability. Achieving a 51-49 Democrat Senate Caucus is likely their best case scenario and would give them a good shot at disrupting Trump’s agenda in the second half of his final term.

But key to this plan would be finding anywhere they can for a pickup, with Maine and North Carolina being their two best (and likely only) opportunities. So expect North Carolina to have one of the most intense, and expensive, US Senate races in history in 2026, especially if Democrats are able to secure a candidate of the caliber of Cooper.

David Larson is opinion editor of Carolina Journal.