Lara Trump Leads Tillis In Senate Race Poll, But Cooper Would Have A Slight Edge

By Carolina Journal Staff

A new poll by Victory Insights reveals shifting dynamics for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina. The survey, conducted from November 26–29 among 800 likely voters, examined potential matchups involving incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis, Republican Lara Trump, and Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

The poll shows Trump securing 65% of support, outpacing Tillis, who garners just 11%. Approximately 24% of respondents remain undecided. Victory Insights suggests that Trump’s appeal among grassroots conservatives gives her a strong advantage, particularly given dissatisfaction with Tillis among some pro-Trump Republicans.

“A substantial portion of the Republican base believes Tillis to be insufficiently conservative on several issues,” said Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. “Delegates to the 2023 North Carolina Republican Convention voted to censure Tillis over his supposed deviances from the party platform.”

Lara Trump, a Wilmington native, and campaign advisor and daughter-in-law of former President Donald Trump, dominates in a hypothetical Republican primary against Tillis. Trump was born in Wilmington, graduated from Laney High School there, and then from NC State University. She married Eric Trump, President-Elect Donald Trump’s son, in 2014. She’s been chair of the Republican National Committee since March, 2024.

When Sen Richard Burr, R-NC, retired in 2022 there was some internal discussion among Republicans about Lara Trump running for that seat.

“It would be an incredible thing. It’s my home state, a state I love so much, and look, I think we need some strong Republicans in Washington, DC. We had a great run with the Senate and the House this go-round, but you know, let’s see what happens,” she said during an interview on Fox News in 2022.

Tillis, former Speaker of the NC House, led a dramatic shift in state policy toward a more fiscally conservative starting in 2011 when Republicans took control of the state legislature for the first time in a century. He won his Senate seat 2014 and was re-elected in 2020.

“The conservative grassroots are unlikely to simply back down and accept Tillis as their party’s nominee,” wrote Victory Insights’ senior pollster Ben Galbralth. “A contentious Republican primary could prove disastrous for Republicans, as defeating the Democratic nominee – which could very possibly be Roy Cooper – will already be an uphill battle. If Republicans hope to win, they need a candidate who can fundraise on par with the Democrats, make it through the primary election unscathed, and win over nonpartisan and middle-of-the-road voters.”

FACING COOPER
In the poll, a matchup between Roy Cooper and Thom Tillis shows Cooper leading Tillis by a narrow margin of 1.1%, with 45.1% of the vote compared to Tillis’s 44.1%. If Cooper were to face Lara Trump, his edge is slightly larger at 1.2%, with 45.5% compared to Trump’s 44.3%.

Despite the close margins, outside factors can dramatically change a path to office. While Trump has stronger support among independents, Tillis fares slightly better in appealing to Democratic voters. However, a contentious, and expensive, Republican primary could weaken Tillis in the general election.

FAVORABILITY
In the poll, Roy Cooper and Trump emerged as the most popular, with Cooper boasting the highest likeability among Democrats and Trump among Republicans. Lara Trump outperformed Tillis among Republican and independent voters in favorability but trailed him in Democratic approval.

“Some party activists are eager for someone to challenge Tillis the same way Michele Morrow challenged the Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction Catherine Truitt,” said Jackson. “While Tillis appears vulnerable, there is a danger that they could end up with a similar result, winning the primary challenge only to lose to the Democratic nominee in the general election.”

In November’s election, Morrow was defeated by Democrat Mo Green for state superintendent, who won 51% of the vote to Morrow’s 49%.

IMPLICATIONS FOR 2026
Lara Trump, though currently uncommitted to running, could energize Trump-supporting voters and enhance Republican turnout in a tight race. The report also underscores the challenge Republicans face in overcoming Cooper’s cross-partisan appeal, suggesting the party’s choice of candidate could be pivotal in this battleground state.

The US Supreme Court has ruled in U. S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton that states cannot add any conditions to who can serve in Congress and Laura Trump meets the age and citizenship requirements. She would have to be an inhabitant of North Carolina by election day to be legally qualified to serve.

“She would presumably want to run in the Republican primary,” said Jackson. “North Carolina law requires that a candidate be ‘affiliated with that party for at least 90 days as of the date of that person filing such notice of candidacy.’ You cannot register with a party in North Carolina unless you are a resident. Since candidate filing is in the December before the election, that would imply that Trump would have to move back to North Carolina by September 2025. She could try to challenge that requirement, but doing so would make her more vulnerable to charges of carpetbagging.”

With just under two years until the election, the poll illustrates how both parties are preparing for a high-stakes contest that could influence the balance of power in the US Senate.