By John Hood
RALEIGH — Being a naturally hopeful person with much to be thankful for, I try to talk to a wide variety of people before speculating about public opinion.
Here’s what my recent conversations suggest. At the moment, some of us are in desperate trouble. Others feel on top of the world. Most are somewhere in between — but may well lurch toward either pole tomorrow. We must all make our own journeys through life, at our own pace, in our own time.
Still, I think it’s fair to say that, on balance, North Carolinians are entering the new year with guarded optimism. That’s understandable. Despite our many challenges, North Carolinians live in a beautiful state that’s generally well-governed and boasts one of the strongest economies in the country. Having just surpassed 11 million residents, North Carolina is currently on track to displace Georgia by the end of the decade to become America’s eighth-most-populous state. Only Texas, Florida, and California added more residents than we did last year (although California grew only because immigration from overseas outpaced its net outflow of Californians, while the other three states experienced domestic inflows, as well).
Two recent polls confirm my anecdotal evidence. High Point University surveyed a thousand North Carolinians in late November, including 856 registered voters. While 47% of respondents say they and their families are financially worse off than they were a year ago, just 24% expect the same thing to happen in 2025.
Asked how they think the country as a whole will fare over the next five years, 23% predict continuous good times and 22% predict widespread unemployment or depression, while 41% expect a mix of both and the rest were unsure.
On political matters, North Carolinians are divided but, to my eyes, not bitterly so. The election of Donald Trump has made 45% happy and 45% unhappy. The remaining 10% haven’t decided yet.
North Carolina voters have a net positive view of new Gov. Josh Stein (+26 points), the state legislature (+10), and, perhaps surprisingly, Kamala Harris (+6). They offer mixed feelings about Trump (-3, within the margin of sampling error) and unfavorable views of Joe Biden (-15), J.D. Vance (-7), the U.S. Supreme Court (-9), and Congress (-23)
The latest Carolina Journal Poll painted a similar portrait of public sentiment at the end of a turbulent year. Two-thirds of North Carolinians think our country is on the wrong track. About half think the same about our state. Again, Josh Stein’s favorable rating (53%) exceeds his unfavorable rating (25%) while voters have mixed feelings about Trump (+1, within the margin of error).
Asked to pick their two priorities for the North Carolina General Assembly to tackle in 2025, respondents collectively place cutting taxes (32%), improving infrastructure (27%), increasing education spending (25%), and increasing government transparency (20%) at the top of the list.
Are these goals compatible? In theory, yes, and voters seem to want lawmakers to strike a prudent balance. Nearly 90% say it is “important” that “a new Democratic governor and a
Republican-led General Assembly try to reach compromise on important issues.” Only 7% said it wasn’t important.
I know this sounds incongruous in an era of smashmouth, flame-war politics. Keep in mind, however, that the vast majority of North Carolinians pay little attention to such content, or to politics at all when there’s no election looming. Those who do — very online politicos, influencers, and followers — are prone to precisely the sort of cognitive bias I admitted at the beginning of this column.
They live in a rather small bubble of relationships and media, created in part by their own choices but then continuously curated by unseen algorithms. They mistake their bubble for reality, much as fish fail to recognize they are wet.
I don’t believe human beings are fated to float downstream, oblivious and powerless. We can seek out alternative views and diversify our connections to the wider world. I resolve to do more of it in 2025.
John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy with American history (FolkloreCycle.com).
Don’t worry, since we’re dumping tons of money into unregulated private “schools” who can teach children anything, or just not teach them at all, education in this state will surely get better, just like in the other states that are doing this.
Oh wait, in the districts where you can even get data on those “schools,” education scores as a whole plummet.
Not to mention that the employees at those “schools” don’t have to pass any sort of accreditation or even get background screens.
It’s all worth it though so that rich people don’t have to pay taxes, and get their services subsidized.
I can’t wait until we start deregulating building codes. It’ll be great to save a few thousand bucks on home construction to have it collapse during a heavy rain or spontaneously catch on fire.