By John Hood
RALEIGH — North Carolina is one of the fastest-growing states in the country. If present trends continue, we’ll surpass Georgia and become the eighth-most-populous state by 2030. There’s even an outside chance we’ll overtake seventh-ranked Ohio.
This is a fact. What it means is contested. Indeed, for the past 15 years Republicans and Democrats have argued incessantly about it.
The former argue that tax cuts, regulatory relief, and other government reforms enacted since the GOP won control of the General Assembly made North Carolina a better place to live, work, and invest, yielding impressive economic results. For their part, Democrats question whether our growth has been truly impressive and argue that it has occurred despite North Carolina’s conservative turn, not because of it.
A single column can’t settle this dispute. What I can do is supply some context. Pulling data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, private think tanks, and other sources, I compared the performance of the 10 most populous states over the past five years.
From 2019 to 2024, the population of the United States grew 3.6%. Population surges in Florida (8.8%), Texas (7.9%), North Carolina (5.3%), and Georgia (5.3%) outpaced that average. Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and California lagged behind. During the same period, those four states — Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia — also outperformed the rest in job creation and real GDP growth. Our state ranked a strong third on both measures.
As it happens, the top four are, from a governance perspective, red states. Florida, Texas, and Georgia had Republican trifectas (governor and both legislative chambers) during the period in question. North Carolina had a Democratic governor, but our constitution divides executive power among 10 elected officials and gives our legislature much more power than in most other states.
As a result, the four states have generally pursued conservative policies. The Tax Foundation’s latest ranking of tax competitiveness puts Florida first, Texas second, and North Carolina third among the 10 most-populous states. At the bottom are New York and California. A broader Fraser institute measure of economic freedom that includes taxes, spending, and regulation shows the same four states high and the other six middle to low.
I know correlations don’t establish causality. But the empirical evidence for the growth-enhancing effects of tax cuts and regulatory reforms is deep and, to my mind, persuasive. Perhaps more to the point, critics of the General Assembly have become increasingly unpersuasive over time. Their dire predictions have fallen flat. North Carolina’s taxes are lower, our regulations are lighter, and state spending as a share of GDP is about a fifth smaller than it was in 2010. People keep moving here. Companies do, too.
Does that suggest government is all cost and no benefit? Nah. Every sensible analyst recognizes the economic value of public services (which doesn’t mean their only value is economic). All other things being equal, states with effective schools, safe streets, and adequate, well-maintained infrastructure will attract more households and businesses.
The mistake here is assuming an inherent tradeoff. Reality teaches a different lesson. High-tax, high-regulation states such as New York and California can’t outcompete the likes of Texas and Florida because the latter deliver better public services, too!
According to the Reason Foundation’s latest analysis of highway performance, for example, North Carolina (#1), Georgia (#6), Florida (#14), and Texas (#25) fare much better than Pennsylvania (#37), New York (#45), and California (#49). And if you take the latest National Assessment of Educational Progress scores and adjust for student background — so as to spotlight the value added by schools — Texas, Florida, and Georgia get the highest ratings, again.
Alas, on that last measure, North Carolina has taken a tumble. In 2019, our schools ranked third in adjusted test scores among the 10 most-populous states. In 2024, we were eighth, comparable to California.
If left unaddressed, that really could endanger our future growth. Guess we need to be more like Florida.
John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy with American history (FolkloreCycle.com).
The growth of North Carolina is undeniable — but attributing it to GOP tax cuts and deregulation is an oversimplification that ignores key realities.
People are moving here for cost of living, climate, and job opportunities, not political ideology. Growth has been concentrated in urban areas like Raleigh and Charlotte, which vote Democratic and have progressive local policies. Meanwhile, many rural GOP-led areas are still struggling.
Yes, GDP and job growth have been strong — but so has wage stagnation, teacher shortages, and underfunded infrastructure. The drop in school performance isn’t a mystery: North Carolina consistently ranks near the bottom in education funding effort, a direct result of legislative decisions over the last decade.
Think tank rankings on “tax competitiveness” or “economic freedom” reflect ideology, not quality of life. If low taxes alone drove success, Mississippi would be a magnet for families and businesses. It’s not.
North Carolina’s growth is real, but it’s happening despite ideological policymaking — not because of it. Long-term success will depend on serious reinvestment in education, healthcare, and inclusive economic development.
Companies do come here for tax advantages and deregulation. Schools are suffering because they can’t keep up with growth, same with infrastructure. Low Cost of living is because of GOP strategies. People are flocking here from democrat run states. People move here because we are better than there, where they come from but then they try to make here, like there, which sucked and they left.
Companies are moving to North Carolina for tax incentives and a business-friendly environment—and they’re bringing jobs with them. That growth fuels demand for housing, which leads to new communities and shopping centers. On average, about 110,000 people relocate to North Carolina each year from both red and blue states. The state’s cost of living is around 9% below the national average, with a BestPlaces score of 91.
Since 2008, voter registration has grown from 6.26 million to roughly 7.3 million. Over the past 15 years, Democratic registration has declined as a share of the electorate, Republican numbers have slightly increased, and unaffiliated voters have surged—now the largest group. More North Carolinians are moving away from party labels and registering as independents.
And while you claim that newcomers are trying to “make here like there,” the truth is, they’re not fleeing ideology—they’re chasing jobs, affordability, and opportunity. Wanting good schools, safe neighborhoods, and working infrastructure isn’t political—it’s common sense. If anything, calling progress a threat is what risks dragging the state in the wrong direction.
Yes, schools and infrastructure are strained—but that’s a common problem in high-growth states. When leaders chase growth but don’t reinvest in public services, the system falls behind. In many cases, the revenue isn’t missing—it’s misused. Money is diverted to corporate tax breaks, stashed in reserves, or funneled into private programs like school vouchers instead of being used to strengthen public education, transit, and infrastructure. Growth alone doesn’t build strong communities—investment does.