By John Hood
RALEIGH — Our state has been a political battleground for nearly two decades — and the latest polling shows the presidential race here has tightened since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket.
In the new Carolina Journal Poll of 600 likely voters, conducted in early August, Donald Trump led Harris by 3.1 percentage points. In May, the poll had Trump leading Biden by 4.5 points. Most other surveys also show a slight Trump edge. Recall that he won North Carolina in 2020 by about 75,000 votes, or 1.3%.
A closer look at the CJ Poll reveals the Harris bump is more about left-leaning respondents coming home to the Democrats than true swing voters making a final choice.
In May, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy polled at 8.8%. Since then, he’s fallen to a more-plausible 3.4%. More generally, 13% of likely North Carolina voters said in May they were inclined to vote for someone other than a Democrat or Republican. Another 6.3% said they were undecided. In August, those figures were 4.6% were 4.1%, respectively.
Why did so many North Carolinians who previous parked their votes in the undecided or third-party column move into the Democratic or Republican camp over the summer?
Here’s my interpretation: a slice of left-leaning voters thought Biden too old or otherwise disdained the current president. They’re more comfortable with Harris and now support her. On the flipside, a slice of right-leaning voters had concerns about Trump but view Harris as more ideologically leftist than Biden and now say they’ll vote Republican. The former group was a bit larger than the latter, which is why the net result is a narrower margin for Trump.
The rest of the CJ Poll confirms a modest rightward tilt in most North Carolina races. The generic-ballot test for Congress has the GOP at 46.5% and the Democrats at 44.9%. For legislature, the Republicans have a 1.4 point edge on the generic ballot. In most statewide races, GOP nominees lead their Democratic opponents by small, usually statistically insignificant margins.
There’s an exception — but I’d hardly call it exceptional. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein is polling at 42.6% to Republican Mark Robinson’s 38.2%. CJ’s May poll had the race tied. As usual, our voters appear to see no contradiction in keeping GOP in charge of the General Assembly and picking Republicans for federal office and most Council of State offices while also putting a Democrat in the governor’s office.
Keep in mind that since the advent of modern two-party competition in North Carolina, only three Republicans have won gubernatorial races: Jim Holshouser (in 1972), Jim Martin (1984 and 1988), and Pat McCrory (2012).
In Robinson’s case, he’s been the target of Democratic ads about past businesses run by him and his wife. There’s been no comparable ad campaign against Stein. Because most voters don’t follow state politics closely — and some associate Stein with Gov. Roy Cooper, who still enjoys crossover appeal — the attorney general currently leads the lieutenant governor. That may yet change.
Two other findings from the CJ Poll stand out to me. First, when asked to pick the most-important issues for the 2024 election cycle, respondents overwhelmingly chose inflation as their top priority. Undecided voters were even more likely to do so than was the rest of the sample. If candidates aren’t talking about the elevated cost of living, and how their proposed policies would make it easier for households to afford basic goods and services, they’re making a big mistake.
Second, the one constitutional amendment on the statewide ballot this year will pass easily. It will forbid future officials from extending voting rights to non-citizens. Another amendment that didn’t make it to the ballot — abolishing the constitution’s literacy requirement for voting — has only 40% support, with 39% against.
Literacy tests are already illegal under federal law. The vestigial requirement ought not be in the constitution. But this is why lawmakers didn’t put it up for a vote.
John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His latest books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history (FolkloreCycle.com).
If anyone believes, that any of these politicians, will do a single thing for the people… you are delusional.
From the article:
“If candidates aren’t talking about the elevated cost of living, and how their proposed policies would make it easier for households to afford basic goods and services, they’re making a big mistake.”
From Mr. Trump’s speech in Asheville on Wednesday, August 14, 2024:
They wanted to do a speech on the economy,” he said, apparently referring to his campaign aides. “They say it’s the most important subject. I’m not sure it is.”