This year’s Independence Day forecast will set new records
CHARLOTTE – AAA projects Independence Day travelers will set new records both nationwide and in North Carolina. More than 70.9 million people around the U.S. are expected to travel 50 miles or more away from home. 2.2 million of those will be North Carolinians.
“The summer travel season is off to a hot start, and we expect to set new travel records on the road and in the sky during the week of Independence Day,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “There will be 3.5 million more travelers than last year. That means even more people at airports and popular attractions like beaches, lakes, and theme parks.”
Independence Day Holiday Travel Period
AAA’s Independence Day travel forecast measures domestic trips of 50 miles or more during a 9-day period from Saturday, June 29 to Sunday, July 7.
Economic trends influencing the travel forecast
Despite concerns about inflation, total travel is increasing on growth in consumer confidence, wages, and continued strength in consumer spending.
- Consumers are expected to increase spending by 5.5% compared to a year ago.
- Real GDP growth will remain modest, rising by 2.5% from last year.
- After falling steadily since January, consumer confidence moved up in May.
- Gas prices for May averaged $3.34, $0.08 higher than a year ago.
| National Independence Day Travel Figures | ||||
| Total | Auto | Air | Other | |
| 2024 (Forecast) | 70.9 million | 60.6 million | 5.7 million | 4.6 million |
| 2023 | 67.4 million | 57.8 million | 5.4 million | 4.2 million |
| 2019 | 65.2 million | 55.3 million | 5.1 million | 4.8 million |
| North Carolina Independence Day Travel Volumes | ||||
| Total | Auto | Air | Other | |
| 2024 (Forecast) | 2.2 million | 1.98 million | 156,988 | 95,879 |
| 2023 | 2.1 million | 1.87 million | 147,832 | 87,849 |
| 2022 | 1.8 million | 1.6 million | 129,176 | 69,117 |
Road Travel
AAA projects a record 60.6 million people will travel by car over Independence Day week – that’s an additional 2.8 million travelers compared to last year. This year’s number also surpasses 2019 when 55.3 million people traveled by car over July 4th week.
Meanwhile, road travel in North Carolina will set a record for the second consecutive year. More than 1.9 million North Carolinians are expected to take a road trip. That’s 100,399 more than last year.
“Road travelers should prepare for congestion in the afternoon and evening hours, particularly near larger metro areas, theme parks and popular attractions,” said Tiffany Wright, spokesperson, AAA – The Auto Club Group in the Carolinas. “With so many people on the road it’s important to be patient, minimize distractions while driving, and move over for people on the roadside.”
Gas Prices
North Carolina drivers are currently paying less on gasoline than they did last Independence Day, when the state average was $3.32. Gas prices have been moving lower as of late. However, that downward trend could reverse course if oil prices rise because of geopolitical tensions or a hurricane that threatens oil rigs and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico.
Air Travel
The number of domestic air travelers is also expected to set a record. Nationally, AAA projects 5.74 million people will fly to their July 4th destinations. That’s an increase of nearly 7% compared to last year and a 12% increase over 2019.
In North Carolina, 156,988 are expected to fly, which is a 6% increase from last year and nearly 22% increase from 2022.
AAA booking data shows domestic airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week compared to last year, and the average price for a domestic roundtrip ticket is $800. Airports will be packed throughout the week. AAA recommends arriving 2 hours early, reserving parking ahead of time, and traveling with carry-on luggage versus checked bags to save time and money.
Other Modes of Transportation
More than 4.6 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an increase of 9% compared to last year, but this year’s number is shy of 2019’s figure of 4.79 million.
In North Carolina, 95,879 travelers will choose other modes of transportation for the holiday, an increase of 9% from last year, and an impressive 39% increase from 2022.
“Cruising continues experiencing remarkable growth,” Haas said. “This time of year, Alaska cruises are in high demand, making Seattle and Anchorage top domestic destinations. Cruise travelers are also finding deals this summer. With new ships coming onto the market – and going for a premium – working with a Travel Advisor is a great way to ensure you’re getting the best value for your vacation. Travel Advisors are also able to help you choose a travel insurance policy that protects you and your investment for the impact of unexpected events before and during your trip.”
Best and Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the worst times to travel by car before and on July 4th are between 2pm and 7pm. Drivers should hit the road in the morning, and travelers returning on Monday, July 8th should avoid rush hour traffic in the morning and afternoon.
“Drivers in large metro areas can expect the worst traffic delays on Wednesday, July 3rd, as they leave town, and Sunday, July 7th, as they return,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Road trips over the holiday week could take up to 67% longer than normal. Travelers should monitor 511 services, local news stations, and traffic apps for up-to-the-minute road conditions.”
Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located.
For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.
| Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car | ||
| Date | Worst Travel Time | Best Travel Time |
| Monday, Jul 1 | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | |
| Tuesday, Jul 2 | 2:00 – 6:00 PM | After 7:00 PM |
| Wednesday, Jul 3 | 2:00 – 7:00 PM | Before Noon |
| Thursday, Jul 4 | 2:00 – 7:00 PM | Before Noon |
| Friday, Jul 5 | 11:00 AM – 4:00 PM | Before 10:00 AM |
| Saturday, Jul 6 | 10:30 AM – 2:30 PM | Before 10:00 AM |
| Sunday, Jul 7 | 2:00 – 8:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Monday, Jul 8 | 1:00 – 5:00 PM | After 7:00 PM |
Source: INRIX
| Peak Congestion by Metro | ||||
| Metro | Route | Peak Congestion Period | Est. Travel Time | IncreaseCompared to Typical |
| Atlanta | Birmingham to Atlanta via I-20 E | Sunday 7th6:30 PM | 3 hours 36 minutes | 42% |
| Boston | Boston to Hyannis via Pilgrim Hwy S | Thursday 4th1:45 PM | 1 hour 51 minutes | 31% |
| Chicago | Chicago to Indianapolis via I-65 S | Wednesday 3rd 2:45 PM | 4 hours 59 minutes | 61% |
| Denver | Fort Collins to Denver via I-25 S | Monday 8th7:30 AM | 1 hour 37 minutes | 56% |
| Detroit | Toronto to Detroit via I-94 W | Monday 8th3:30 PM | 5 hours 35 minutes | 29% |
| Houston | San Antonio to Houston via I-10 E | Saturday 6th1:30 PM | 3 hours 48 minutes | 41% |
| Los Angeles | Bakersfield to Los Angeles via I-5 S | Monday 8th2:15 PM | 1 hour 47 minutes | 29% |
| Minneapolis | Eau Claire to Minneapolis via I-94 W | Monday 8th4:45 PM | 1 hour 43 minutes | 31% |
| New York | Jersey Shore to New York via Garden State Pkwy N | Sunday 7th2:15 PM | 1 hour 25 minutes | 40% |
| Philadelphia | Poconos to Philadelphia via PA Turnpike | Monday 8th8:30 AM | 3 hours 17 minutes | 50% |
| Portland | Portland to Eugene via I-5 S | Wednesday 3rd 5:00 PM | 2 hours 20 minutes | 35% |
| San Diego | San Diego to Palm Springs via I-15 N | Thursday 4th6:00 PM | 2 hours 55 minutes | 16% |
| San Francisco | San Francisco to Monterey via Santa Cruz Hwy S | Tuesday 2nd5:45 PM | 2 hours 31 minutes | 19% |
| Seattle | Ellensburg to Seattle via I-90 E | Sunday 7th4:30 PM | 2 hours 19 minutes | 35% |
| Tampa | Tampa to Orlando via I-4 E | Wednesday 3rd 10:15 AM | 1 hour 54 minutes | 58% |
| Washington DC | Baltimore to Washington DC via Balt/Wash Pkwy S | Monday 8th3:15 PM | 1 hour 1 minute | 67% |
Source: INRIX
Top Destinations
This July 4th week, travelers are cooling off in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska – and by the ocean! Seattle, Vancouver, and Anchorage are top destinations because of the popularity of Alaska cruises this time of year. Beaches in South Florida, Honolulu, Punta Cana, and Barcelona are in high demand. Historical sites in European cities like London, Rome, Dublin, Paris, and Athens are also popular. The top 10 domestic and international destinations below are based on AAA booking data.
| DOMESTIC | INTERNATIONAL |
| Seattle, WA | Vancouver, BC, Canada |
| Orlando, FL | London, England |
| Anchorage, AK | Rome, Italy |
| Honolulu, HI | Dublin, Ireland |
| Miami, FL | Paris, France |
| New York, NY | Calgary, AB, Canada |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | Amsterdam, Netherlands |
| Las Vegas, NV | Punta Cana, Dominican Republic |
| Denver, CO | Athens, Greece |
| Anaheim/Los Angeles, CA | Barcelona, Spain |
