Amid Blue Tsunami, Conservative Ideas Prevail

By John Hood

RALEIGH — At the same time North Carolina Democrats secured eye-popping victories in federal, state, and local races on Tuesday, North Carolina voters demonstrated their commitments to fiscal conservatism and election integrity. Feel free to label this a contradiction if you wish, but it won’t change anything. Like Walt Whitman, the electorate is large and contains multitudes.

Speaking of multitudes, while former Gov. Roy Cooper blew past former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley by a margin of 59% to 39% — becoming the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat here in nearly two decades — North Carolinians voted by an even-larger margin (62% to 38%) to lower the state’s constitutional cap on income tax rates to 3.5%. The same electorate also amended the constitution to require a cap on property-tax collections (60% for, 40% against) and to require North Carolinians to supply a photo ID in order to cast in-person or absentee ballots (60% for, 40% against).

Democrats lost control of the General Assembly in 2010. Over the subsequent 16 years, their leaders and activists have fretted and seethed about the Republican majority’s fiscal policies and election reforms. Most Democratic lawmakers opposed GOP-led cuts in income taxes and the spending restraint required to maintain them. Most also opposed voter ID. Now, even as their party justifiably celebrates its legislative victories — a 24-seat gain to a House majority, four Senate seats flipped — Democrats cannot justifiably claim vindication on two hotly disputed issues, taxes and voter ID.

The primary driver of the 2026 election cycle was, of course, President Donald Trump. His average approval rating right before Election Day, 38.8%, was the lowest any president has ever had in this situation.

For good or ill, presidents have in the modern era become the primary driver of every midterm cycle. In 1994 and 2010, Republicans and swing voters punished Democrats for the unpopular policies of Democratic presidents. The red waves that resulted transformed not just power in Washington but politics in more than a dozen state capitals, including Raleigh. In 2008 and 2026, Democrats and swing voters did the same to the GOP. Was there a blue tsunami? Well, the Democratic Party dropped its support for Shelly Headen, its nominee in House District 61, because of her grotesque and deranged comments. She still beat Republican incumbent John Blust.

That doesn’t mean state and local campaigns are irrelevant. Voters care about more than what’s going on in Washington, thank goodness. In 2010, for example, North Carolina Republicans overperformed the national trend by pointing to the state’s grave economic challenges as well as a series of Democratic corruption scandals.

In the just-completed 2026 cycle, North Carolina Democrats went beyond the general anti-Trump mood to spotlight hot-button issues such as healthcare costs and to highlight charges of corruption against Republicans. At the top of the ticket, the Cooper campaign and its allies helped drive an affordability message while the Whatley campaign and its allies devoted significant resources to an anti-crime message. These proved to be fateful choices. In both pre-election and exit surveys, the cost of living was by far the top-ranked issue. Crime was far down the list. In the final Carolina Journal Poll, for instance, affordability was at 32% and crime at 6%.

The North Carolina GOP had a terrible midterm. Flushed with victory, North Carolina Democrats might misread their mandate and lurch off in a leftward direction that the state’s voters will not like. Alternatively, Democrats might recognize the precarious nature of their 2026 gains and navigate the legislative sessions and local budget cycles of 2027 and 2028 carefully, with an eye on consolidating their position.

I don’t know which course they will follow. Democratic leaders may not yet know themselves. As for North Carolina Republicans, they couldn’t shed a national brand tarnished by economic populism, corruption, and demagoguery. And conservatism? It survives to fight another day, as leaders of the Freedom Conservatism movement will discuss at FreeCon Raleigh on November 18.

John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy with American history (FolkloreCycle.com).